The Finance Ministry estimated real GDP growth of 7.3 per cent for the July-September quarter of 2026-27 in its September Monthly Economic Review, reported on October 1. The figure came from its nowcasting measure, rather than the National Statistics Office's completed quarterly GDP estimate. The ministry said activity had continued into the second quarter, but at a more moderate pace than in April-June.
According to ANI's account of the review, e-way bill generation and manufacturing activity had moderated, while services strengthened in August. Electricity and fuel consumption, bank credit and production of capital and infrastructure goods supported the investment outlook. The ministry also warned that higher oil prices, tighter international financing conditions and uncertainty over trade with the United States could affect momentum. Weather-related risks to the coming rabi crop remained another concern.
The preceding quarter's official figures, released on August 31, showed real GDP growth of 7.8 per cent, against 6.9 per cent a year earlier. The Financial Express reported that services grew 10 per cent, led by financial, real-estate, IT and professional services at 12.1 per cent. Trade, hotels, transport and communication-related services expanded 8.5 per cent. These April-June results provided the starting point for the ministry's assessment of the following quarter.
Investment and sectoral figures showed different rates of expansion within that earlier result. Gross fixed capital formation rose 11.9 per cent, compared with 5.8 per cent a year earlier, while private consumption increased 7.1 per cent and government consumption 4.3 per cent. Manufacturing expanded 9.2 per cent and construction 7.7 per cent. Agriculture and allied activities grew 3.6 per cent, but mining contracted 2.4 per cent. The investment and services figures therefore accompanied a weaker performance in parts of the primary sector.
